The price has been remarkably stable/consistent since 2010. Never going much above $105 and never dropping below $85 during this time.
This, I believe is the result of a very large supply of expensive oil coming onto the market starting in earnest in 2009. Shale oil has a marginal cost of 80/barrel or so. The talk of a "technological revolution" is hype.
It's real interesting that virtually nobody in the media talks about the stability of oil prices which could be construed as a good thing (isn't stability usually good?). But my guess is that stability at a price in the mid/upper 90's weakens the case of a "technological revolution" so it's ignored. Stability and revolution just do not go together. A technological revolution should send oil prices dropping like a stone (like computer chip prices did). Stability indicates that we have not have had one. We have had an economic revolution where due to economic factors (supply and demand) we now need to exploit much more expensive oil. It just so happens that there is a LOT of expensive oil out there hence the stability in price.
I think we may be on the verge of an era of green energy. Cost in a MPG sense for electric cars is 2/gallon right now and I do not see that going much higher. To many sources of elect are out there and wind and solar will never become more expensive. They will become less and less expensive but at a slow rate. We have a boom in nat gas. More cheap elect. Global warming may cause people to re-evaluate Nuclear.
Possible story in Popular Mechanics 5 years from now:
"10 Tips on keeping your Hybrid running on electricity for as long as possible "
Reason for this headline: oil will still be expensive but electricity may be even cheaper than it is today and the range problems of elect cars will not yet be solved.
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