Setting the stage for the next oil crunch

The massive spill in the gulf has led to:
- A moratorium on new deep water drilling in the gulf of Mexico.
- The probable acceleration in decline in the amount of oil coming through the Alaska pipeline: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704067504575304942111464272.html?KEYWORDS=Alaska+pipeline
- Norway banning new oil and gas drilling "until the investigation into the explosion and spill in the US Gulf of Mexico is complete"

The oil industry is already struggling very hard to keep oil production steady.

Demand for oil is growing in China, India and throughout the developing world.

The economy is improving slightly in the developed world.

Something has to give. I forsee either another 2008 run-up in prices (147/barrel or worse), the recession coming back tanking oil demand, or something in the middle. This article from the oil drum is very good:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6574#more