The hydrogen economy will never happen

I am going to start off this blog with a somewhat bold prediction: the so-called "Hydrogen Economy" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_Economy) that has been so hyped for the last several years is not going to happen. Ever. It's a classic smoke-and-mirrors dream. If you are an investor don't put any long term money into companies that support it - typically Fuel Cell makers, as you will see below. In the short term hype may cause some action in this area but in the longer term this is a dead dog.

Why? Read on.

Lets look at what Hydrogen fuel cells do and what they would *have* to do to compete. What they do is generate electricity directly from fuel via an electrochemical conversion device (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_Cell, or http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-cell.htm) and the cost of generating electricity this way is far higher than the far more simpler method of just burning fuel to boil water and turn a turbine. The most convenient fuel for a fuel cell is of course Hydrogen, hence my usage of the term "Hydrogen Fuel Cell" above. Hydrogen is fed into the fuel cell it combines with Oxygen and generates electricity in the process. Sounds great doesn't it? But we must answer the question of where does the hydrogen come from and how is it stored and in answering that we will see the fatal flaw.

Fuel cells get Hydrogen from either electrolysis of water or by splitting a hydrogen atom off a hydrocarbon molecule (like petroleum). If you use electrolysis to get the hydrogen you are guaranteed of using more energy in getting the hydrogen than you get by using it in a fuel cell. This is due to fundamental laws of physics which cannot be broken. Oops. OK so what about splitting the Hydrogen off a hydrocarbon. Well why not just burn the hydrocarbon (easy!) instead of splitting off hydrogen (moderately hard) and then using a fuel cell to generate electricity from it (moderately hard to very hard).

The fact is it will *always* be easier to just burn the hydrocarbon and this is the reason the Hydrogen economy will never happen. Also consider the problems storing and moving Hydrogen. Hydrogen is extremely difficult to contain. It is the *smallest* atom there is and the problems in containing it are legendary. Just take a look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_storage

Problems in storing Hydrogen and making Fuel Cells competitive with other methods of generating electricity will *not* be "solved by technology" (the tooth fairy of our time). It will always be cheaper and easier to use the hydrocarbons that we have (Crude Oil and Natural Gas primarily) vs. stripping out hydrogen first and *then* using the hydrogen. This is fundamental and will never change.

OK so why the hype. The hype is there because a "Hydrogen Economy" is something that people *want to believe in*. It's a great story: we will get massive amounts of power from something (Hydrogen) that when used in a Fuel Cell generates nothing but water as waste. Notice that I have left this key aspect and selling point till the end. That is a great line isn't it! We use Hydrogen (the most abundant element in the universe) and just combine it in a fuel cell with Oxygen and va-voom we get electricity and water. What could *possibly* be better than that. But like room temperature nuclear fusion of a generation ago (which sounded every bit as good as the Hydrogen economy) it's not going to happen. The "legs" of the story in both cases are it speaks to what people *want* to believe: cheap limitless energy with no pollution. Not reality.

Bottom line: The "Hydrogen Economy" and Fuel Cells will forever be limited to demonstration projects, glorified toys and hype.