Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Now for some analysis

The m2 money supply is rising at the fastest rate since 9-11.

Source:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M2.txt

The latest week (9/22) shows the second greatest gain in the entire range! The greatest gain was in the week after 9-11.

The increase in the money supply was over 2% (vs. just over 3% the week after 9-11).

2% in one week is a LOT for money supply growth. Compound that kind of growth over 52 weeks and you would have hyper inflation.

No week other than the post 9/11/2001 week and the 9/22/2008 week show even a 1% gain. The average weekly gain in M2 has been about 1/10 of 1 percent. So the latest reported week shows a gain of 20 times greater than normal.

It will be interesting to see if there is another big gain in the week of Sept 29 and also interesting to speculate where this money is going right now.

I feel confident that we are not headed toward hyper-inflation; in fact we seem to be in a somewhat deflationary period -think stocks, job losses, energy prices in the last month.

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