Is Osama Bin Laden dead?

I have suspected this for some time. This article in the conservative American Spectator makes a pretty good case:
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/03/13/osama-bin-elvis/

I would add the question of whose interests are advanced by keeping alive a myth of Osama Bin Laden's continued existence. First, the interests of American neo-conservatives who wish to keep the nation at war are advanced by a "living" Bin Laden. A dead Bin Laden would open the possibility of ending this war.

Al-Qaeda and various radical elements in the middle east also would want to perpetuate a myth of a living Bin Laden to show their friends and allies that they are robust and can persist in the face of American power: he attacked downtown New York City and he's still alive and free! A dead Bin Laden might suggest an impotent Al Qaeda. If there is one thing they don't want to be it's impotent.

The question of Bin Laden's real involvement (vs. being just a cheerleader) in 9/11 is moot to both groups.

OK, so how would this have gone down - if Bin Laden is dead how could that have been hidden. The "osama-bin-elvis" article notes that there are is no credible evidence of a living Bin Laden after November of 2001. That is when the Afghanistan war was reaching it's most intense point. Here is a description from Wikipedia of what happened in Tora Bora cave region in December 2001:

"Al-Qaeda fighters were still holding out in the mountains of Tora Bora, however, while an anti-Taliban tribal militia steadily pushed bin Laden back across the difficult terrain, backed by withering air strikes guided in by U.S. and UK Special Forces. Facing defeat, the al-Qaeda forces agreed to a truce to give them time to surrender their weapons. In retrospect, however, many believe that the truce was a ruse to allow important al-Qaeda figures, including Osama bin Laden, to escape. On December 12, the fighting flared again, probably initiated by a rear guard buying time for the main force's escape through the White Mountains into the tribal areas of Pakistan. Once again, tribal forces backed by British and U.S. special operations troops and air support pressed ahead against fortified al-Qaeda positions in caves and bunkers scattered throughout the mountainous region. By December 17, the last cave complex had been taken and their defenders overrun. A search of the area by U.S. and UK forces continued into January, but no sign of bin Laden or the al-Qaeda leadership emerged. It is almost unanimously believed that they had already slipped away into the tribal areas of Pakistan to the south and east. It is estimated that around 200 of the al-Qaeda fighters were killed during the battle, along with an unknown number of anti-Taliban tribal fighters. No U.S. or UK deaths were reported."

But instead of the official line maybe:
a) Bin Laden was pre-emptively killed by his own people via prearrangement as enemy forces closed in and then the body was then disposed of.
b) his cave or hiding place was hit directly by a large bomb which left no body behind.
c) He died from pre existing conditions which were exacerbated by the stress of what was happening and his body was disposed of via prearrangement. This could have happened months or years after Sept 2001.

Maybe after that, statements or video's he had made while alive continued to leak to the media for a time giving the appearance that he was still alive and then someone got the bright idea to start creating fake video's and statements to keep the ball rolling and after that it took on a life of it's own.

In any case, the longer we go without having independent verifiable evidence of his existence, the more likely it is that he is dead. And it seems not altogether implausible that he died in late 2001 and all the tapes and video's and statements attributed to him since then have been fakes. The CIA validated much of the stuff you say? Well the CIA has a long and sad record of "validating" what it's bosses want to hear. Remember Weapons of Mass Destruction?, the "potent power" of the Soviet Union when it was on the verge of collapse?, Tonkin Gulf?. The CIA can be counted on to tell us what it's bosses (typically the president of the U.S.) want to hear. The historical record on this is clear.

As time goes on another party becomes interested in perpetuating the myth: the media. After years of sensationalistic coverage of Bin Laden they would look like fools if it was revealed that he had in fact died long ago. So they have no incentive to look long and hard at the question of his existence either.

The "osama-bin-elvis" article makes another good point. A point that I have heard elsewhere: what/who is Al Qaeda now. Is there still a coherent Al Qaeda connected to the original group that has grown and expanded or is "Al Qaeda" just want one calls oneself when one wants to fight the United States in the middle east. My bet is it's the latter.

Both these questions (is Osama really still alive and what is the real nature of Al Qaeda at this time) deserve attention.

One final (and very dark) thought: could the (perhaps post mortem) video's, tapes and statements attributed to Bin Laden lead eventually to the rise of an "after death/rose from the dead" mythology that would be -by it's nature- religious, thereby elevating him to supernatural status. Boy if you think radical Islam is bad now...yikes. That would be the mother of unintended consequences!